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Tuesday, June 23, 2009

ICE-2009 Conference

This week I'm in Leiden (Netherlands) attending the 15th International Conference on Concurrent Enterprising. It's a somewhat peculiar conference, mixing some hardcore satellite communications stuff with all these new-agey open innovation and user involvement concepts. Some good opportunities for networking and establishing contacts useful for our own Living Lab. You can check my real time comments about the conference discussions in in this Twitter stream.

Tomorrow there's a visit to ESA headquarters but unfortunately I won't be able to attend, I'll be in a meeting.

Yesterday in the evening I had the chance to visit the town of Leiden and yes, as it's usually the case with the Netherlands, it's gorgeous:

Thursday, June 11, 2009

Sanidad 2.0 conference

Hi there! I'm alive. I'm in Bilbao today attending the Sanidad 2.0 conference, organized by the Basque Government and Deusto Business School. I just gave a presentation about the projects we have at IAVANTE related to collaborative innovation and social networks (I refuse to call this stuff "2.0").

Weather is great and the Botxo is getting more beautiful every year. We're in front of the beautiful and majestic Deusto University building:


This morning I met the Basque Regional Minister for Health, Rafael Bengoa. He's really impressed me with his open an humble approach toward health services reform and his statement that healthcare (organizational) innovation should be a multiple-approach effort led independently by the different health centers and his recognition that the traditional "one-size-fits-all" way of managing public health providers just doesn't work.

Monday, April 6, 2009

Back in Chicago

If you had asked me a year ago I wouldn't have bet a lot of money that I would be back at the second city so soon. But here I am, lusting after my favorite giants: the NBC building, the Carbide and Carbon Building, 333 N. Michigan... what a place! The cracking of the rusty loop, the potholes in Wabash, the abandoned Post Office Building... I love even the defects of this mammoth monument to the twentieth century and to human achievement.

I'm at HIMSS 2009, along with something like 20 thousand colleagues at McCormick Place, and I'm loving every single minute of it.

Thursday, April 17, 2008

Engineering challenges for the 21st century

The National Academy of Engineering asked a panel of very interesting and thoughtful people to come up with a list of the most important engineering challenges for this century. The group is really impresive. Here are some of the members:
  • J. Craig Venter (human genome decoding, first artificial chromosome...).
  • Dean Kamen (mobile dialysis machine, insulin pumps, Segway...).
  • Ray Kurzweil (OCR, text-to-speech...)
  • Larry Page (Google)
So, this group of engineering titans produced a list of general technology fields instead of trying to ascertain the need for any particular specific devices. These are the fourteen challenges proposed with my comment for each:
  1. Make solar energy economical: right, but economical in this context means reaching efficiencies above 70%
  2. Provide energy from fusion: it'll be ready in 25 years! (as it's been the case during the last 40)
  3. Develop carbon sequestration methods: here's my candidate! (biochar)
  4. Manage the Nitrogen cycle: we're going to need a lot of Mr. Venter talent for this one; and a lot less of the European GMO fearmongering than we have right now
  5. Provide access to clean water: the way I see it this is mainly an economic challenge
  6. Restore and improve urban infraestructure: upwards, please!
  7. Advance health informatics: yes, but it won't be the silver bullet many people expect
  8. Engineer better medicines: this one, on the other hand...
  9. Reverse-engineer the brain: I'm afraid we won't be able to
  10. Prevent nuclear terror: yes, please. Or even better, prevent terror. Period
  11. Secure cyberspace: from splits? from rogues? from thieves? from governments?
  12. Enhance virtual reality: c'mon Ray, you had to sneak this one?
  13. Advance personal learning: and this one too?
  14. Engineer the tools of scientific discovery: this more of an ongoing concern than solving a specific incoming challenge
It's a good list, if only a bit too politically correct. However, I miss a very important challenge not addressed there that is much more pressing than a few of the ones that got into the list (like 2, 6, 11, 12 and 13): advance energy storage technology.

Visiting the Oracle of Omaha

Now, this is something that could make me enroll in an MBA:
Some 15 times a year Berkshire CEO Warren Buffett invites a group of business students for an intensive day of learning. The students tour one or two of the company's businesses and then proceed to Berkshire (BRKA, Fortune 500) headquarters in downtown Omaha, where Buffett opens the floor to two hours of questions and answers.
This time, it was students from Wharton. The Wharton MBA is ranked as the best in the world by the Financial Times.

Buffett has repeatedly stated that he thinks he would make a lousy CEO and thus is happy to let the managers of the companies he buys for Berkshire keep their posts. Here's how he told the Wharton whizz kids:
But if you gave me the choice of being CEO of General Electric or IBM or General Motors, you name it, or delivering papers, I would deliver papers. I would. I enjoyed doing that. I can think about what I want to think. I don't have to do anything I don't want to do. It might be wonderful to be head of GE, and Jeff Immelt is a friend of mine. And he's a great guy. But think of all the things he has to do whether he wants to do them or not.
Lesson: do what you love.

Make yourself a favor and read the whole thing.

Healthcare systems comparison

Over at healthcare-economist.com Jason Shafrin is doing a series of posts describing the healthcare systems of several developed nations. You can always learn about the different national approaches on your own, but it's useful to have these summaries all in one place.

The main lesson that the reader will pick up is that actually there are a lot of different models, contradicting the settled notion that the Americans do it one way and the rest of the developed nations do it the other way (namely, the good one).

So far, Jason has published the profiles for the healthcare systems of France, Italy, Spain and Japan. Of these, I think the French and Japanese ones make the most sense. The Japanese model is somewhat cheaper than the French one, but we have to take into account that many external factors also contribute to define a nation's healthcare expense (lifestyle and culture, legal frameworks...). I'm looking forward for the Switzerland installment.

If you are interested in this topic, I recommend this paper by Michael Tanner at the Cato Institute. After that, you can help yourself with the hundreds of posts about healthcare economics at Econlib. There you'll find, for example, this sound critic of the WHO health rankings by Arnold Kling:
Almost two-thirds of the weight in the WHO index goes to these distributional factors. They focus more on inequality than on the absolute level of care received by the poor. In fact, if you dig deeply, what WHO is really measuring is not even inequality in terms of health services but just plain income inequality. Just having very rich people per se is enough to lower the quality of our health care system, according to WHO's methodology.

Monday, March 24, 2008

Healthcare costs as a competitive (dis)advantage?

The Council on Foreign Relations has published a much discussed backgrounder titled Healthcare costs and U.S. competitiveness. The main point of the article is that employer-funded healthcare (that covers around 175 million American workers), coupled with skyrocketting healthcare costs in the U.S. is becoming a significant competitive drag for American businesses, threatening millions and millions of workers with losing their jobs to offshore competitors (made competitive by their more efficient healthcare systems).

American healthcare is, I agree, poorly efficient and has a distorted incentive structure that tends to push up costs (and care consumption). But all that can be stated without the fearmongering about millions of American workers about to lose their jobs because of health costs.

Let's get into a few details. The article provides several figures showing just how incredibly expensive American healthcare is. Yes, it is. I miss, though, a solid figure about what percentage of total worker compensation goes to pay for healthcare costs. This is the relevant figure in an article that argues that such cost makes American business uncompetitive and workers about to fall prey to outsourcing dynamics.

In fact, such a number could come in handy to make comparisons, now that we're talking about business environment and competitiveness. If we check for more general business costs, we get some interesting results. Let's look at some data from the OECD. For example, this just released report about total wage taxation that provides this useful and informative table of total tax wedge as a percentage of labour costs:
  • Belgium, 55%
  • Germany, 52.2%
  • France, 49.2%
  • Sweden, 45.4%
  • Spain, 38.9%
  • UK, 34.1%
  • USA, 30.0%
  • Japan, 29.3%
So, labour-related tax costs are around fifteen points lower in the U.S. than the average European country. It sure doesn't seem like a very labor-uncompetitive arrangement to me!

If, and it's a big if, healthcare costs amount to something like 20% of labour costs in American firms, then they're as labour competitive as France. France's healthcare system is reasonably efficient and, in a general sense, probably the best national healthcare system in the world. I say it's a big if because the aforementioned OECD report provides ppp-adjusted figures for unit-labour costs. For the American firms, that includes the cost of employer-provided health coverage. Let's see:
  • Germany: $59,526
  • UK: $56,612
  • France: $50,260
  • U.S.: $44,347
Really, how can a serious institution, in the face of such figures, contend that the argument for establishing a national health system in the U.S. is the uncompetitive labour costs that American firms face if it's not done? Factoring-in productivity figures makes the difference even starker.

You may be wondering why the American figure for total tax wedge as a percentage of labour is so low compared to many other developed nations. Their (somewhat lower) level of public spending as a share of GDP surely doesn't justify such a big diference. Well, it may seem paradoxical to some, but the American tax system is much more weighted towards corporate taxes than most European ones. Once state taxes are taken into account, the U.S., at 39.27%, has the second highest corporate tax in the world after Japan (that not surprisingly has a similar labour tax wedge). Spain's figure, for the sake of comparison, is 32.5%. Sweden's is 28%. The corporate tax rate in Ireland is 12.5%. How competitive is that for American businesses? Is no one at the CFR worried about it?

The CFR article quotes Michael Porter, who knows a thing or two about competitiveness, regarding the (sorry) state of competition in the American healthcare sector. I concur with that diagnosis, but that's an altogether different statement from affirming that healthcare costs make American employers (and workers) uncompetitive. Do not miss Porter's latest book addressing healthcare competition, it's excellent: Redefining Health Care.

The article is interesting but I find the argument blatantly disingenuous. Just a way of selling a national healthcare system to the enterprise-minded. National public healthcare systems should (and can) be argued for on their own merits, without this kind of spin.

Measuring Innovation

Innovation is one of the basic foundations of any dynamic economy. The (current) problem with the concept of innovation is that its own relevancy has rendered the term almost meaningless. Innovation has become just another management (and government) buzz-word, a fad. It is thus essential, if we are to manage innovation efficiently and define sound policies to foster it, that we can agree on what we are talking about and, more to the point, how to measure it.

On the terminology side of that effort, we have initiatives like the Spanish UNE-166000 set of standards that aim to define concepts and approaches related to innovation, innovative projects and innovation management systems. The basic framework is closely related to that of other management standards like the ISO 9000 for quality management systems or the ISO 14000 for environmental management systems.

So far so good but, more than delimiting which are the processes that we will refer to as innovations, what we really need to learn is how to measure their outcomes and results. This is in no way an easy task, because the innovative process permeates all the levels and sectors of a modern economy. Economists frequently use Total Factor Productivity (pdf) as the best measure to estimate the impact of innovation, but it hasn't been established in any meaningful way that every increment in TFP is attributable to innovation. Innovation diffusion, crucially, has an important effect in TFP without any new innovation taking place. Determining what are the subjacent causes for increases in worker productivity isn't exactly straightfoward.

Nonetheless, some efforts are being undertaken in this field. The most thorough one that I know of is this one: Measuring Innovation in the 21st Century Economy. It's been produced by the U.S. Department of Commerce and with the participation of some industry heavyweights (like the CEOs of Microsoft, IBM, Medtronics...). The report is really insightful and I strongly recommend reading it for anyone interested in innovation policies and metrics, but don't expect it to ultimately clear all the blurry parts of the innovation picture.

If what you want to measure is the volume and activities of the innovative process, instead of its ultimate efect on the economy, the best reference I know of is the OECD Oslo Manual. It's a must read.

(Thanks to orgtheory.net)

Thursday, March 20, 2008

Match Day

Today, March 20th, is a very special day for about fifteen thousand medical school graduating students in the U.S. (and for about ten thousand people from abroad, via the USMLE). Today is Match Day, when a computer system processes the preferences stated by these graduates regarding their desired medical specialty and hospital residency program and matches the data with the preferences submitted by the hospitals about the candidates. It's a somewhat complicated system but it works remarkably well and it's been in place since the fifties. Most of the students match to their desired options. From what I can gather from the advance data tables for 2008 published by the National Resident Matching Program about 85% of the graduates will go to one of their top three choices (about 45% for foreigners).

If you want a first person account of the process, check out this interview with Graham Walker, a medical student from Stanford. He's matched to his first choice :-)

This matching system is very different from the approach used in Spain, which is pretty straigthforward and fair: everybody does an exam whose grades serve to rank all of the candidates who will then choose residency program (hospital and medical specialty) based on their position in the ranking.

The main advantage that I see in the American matching program is that it gives the hospitals a (direct) say in what kind of residents they'll get. And if you look at the hard numbers, I think is fair to assume that more people go where they want than with the Spanish system of a single national exam.

Anyway, congratulations to everyone that matched today and get ready for those grueling 80-hour work weeks! Use the remaining 88 wisely (i.e. preparing for the boarding exams).

Monday, March 10, 2008

Personal Health Information Networks

Personal Health Information Networks (PHIN) are the latest trend in the field of Electronic Health Records (EHR).

The concept itself is really simple: given that aligning all the interested parties in the healthcare process to come up with solid standard-based and portable electronic health records is going to take too long (see this and this), why not make it easier by skipping all those agents and having the patient be the manager of the system?

This idea is what underpins the development of several importan projects in the healthcare information sector. Big players from the technology sector (and I mean very big) are scrambling to get their systems ready:
All of them share several important features like patient-controlled information submittal and retrieval, healthcare-provider search, health advice and information, etc.

I recommend this analysis of current and future efforts in PHINs by Vince Kuraitis and David C. Kibbe.